The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Despite the fact that reputable cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at many sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable cash pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and instantly our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'
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